A 20% to 25% Land Crash?

Reposted from DTN/Progressive Farmer:

Minding Ag's Business

Marcia Zarley Taylor DTN Executive Editor Bio  |  Email

Thursday 06/05/14

A 20% to 25% Land Crash?

Marcia, in your June Businesslink column in "The Progressive Farmer" magazine, you quote a Farm Credit Administration economist saying, "We’re expecting a land value correction of 20% to 25%" over the next few years. What can make this happen? The price of the crop does not have the bearing as in the past. The price of land here has not stopped going up. --Cal Cal, I can’t speak for the Farm Credit Administration’s rationale, but in general most economists say what buyers pay for land is based on future income prospects. In the long-run, that means land values mirror farm income and/or the potential rents landowners think they can charge. (Interest rates also affect affordability of land, but not as much as farm profits). The problem is most of the “official” 10-year estimates of commodity prices from USDA and the University of Missouri’s FAPRI, for example, have corn averaging about $4 over the next decade, not the $6 to $7 cash corn growers averaged in 2012, so I think FCA is assuming future farm incomes won’t be as robust the next 5-10 years as they were in the last decade. There’s always a lag though, as in the 1980s when farm incomes fell first but the price of land didn’t bottom for five or six years.

Robot bees

Next Sustainable Potomac Highland Meeting - May 8, 2014

To review the minutes of the last meeting go here.

Proposed Agenda

Sustainable Potomac Highlands

05/08/14

1. Call to order and welcome new people. Resilience News: Tom Lewis

2. Approve minutes of the last meeting and agenda for this meeting. Officers’ reports as needed; treasurer, Transition liaison, communications.

3. Old Business/New Business

Patricia Taylor: beekeeping presentation by Brian Umsted?

Sarah Purol: demonstration by biodiesel-car guy?

Windy Cutler: co-op with Brookedale Farms canning and preserving workshop?

Dale Brady: charcuterie workshop at HHS May 13?

Steve Martin: Frostburg Grows

Tom Lewis: liaison, West Virginia Highlands Climate Change Impacts Initiative. Conference June 7. Tom Rodd to speak to us in August?

5. Reports from the standing committees as needed:

Food: Windy Cutler

Health: Eva Taylor

Energy: Tim Reese

Transportation: Sarah Purol

Finance: Steve Martin

4. Presentation by Steven Martin:  Topic is "Socially Responsible Investing."  A brief introduction to getting your financial and investing philosophies in alignment with your local economy and sustainability values.

6. Adjourn.

Mules  for Transportation here in Hampshire County   by Sarah Purol

I have made reference to the fact that in the quest for sustainable transportation animals would be a good option to take a close look at.  When we are faced with a future where sustainability is a key factor it makes a great deal of sense to remember that petroleum will be either very expensive or unavailable and that has far reaching consequences.

We tend to forget how absolutely dependent we are on petroleum products in our daily lives and the fact of the matter is that we are going to have to live with a lot less of it…or perhaps none at all.

What does that mean?  It means there will be far less petroleum for the following things: 

Gas for cars.  Diesel for cars.  Home heating oil. Jet fuel.  Asphalt for roads.  Tires for vehicles. Plastics and composite materials of various types.  Fertilizer for crops.  Insecticides for crops.  Certain types of medicine and cosmetics.  Packaging for various items.  The list is so long it would take the rest of the page and…well…. you get the picture. 

The main thing is of course gasoline for our cars.  When the crunch hits…and that is coming very quickly…it will effect everything in a big way….and we are not even remotely prepared for it. 

We are so use to jumping in our own personal cars to go wherever we want, whenever we want that we have developed  what I call a “transportation entitlement” mentality.

Some of us will get electric vehicles  for personal transport and power them from solar systems we have installed.  I’ll be watching carefully to see how well that pans out.  Producing electricity with solar is a good idea.  So is producing electricity with hydro systems and wind turbines.  Using electricity where you produce it is a good idea and I hope we can do that for a long time into the future if we are smart and if we are lucky enough to be able to manufacture and fix the components we need to keep the systems running.

But transportation using EV’s?  Well..lets just say I’m not as confident about that at present.  For one thing, cost is a big factor.  For another thing, the batteries are not so good at present…although that could change.  I may yet jump on the EV bandwagon and put up a solar array. 

I’ve lived without electricity or running water in a 3^rd world country for two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer so I’m not as worried about going without power as some folks are.  I suspect my husband will have to have a solar array to be happy so I’ll probably leave that to him.

Some people are looking at alternative fuels.  You would think that with WV’s history of moon shining and concurrent love of cars, there would be quite a number of good old boys riding around in vehicles they had modified to run on ethanol.  Not so.   BTW, I’m a good old girl myself and my grandfather kept his 15 children alive for a period of time in southern WV making the best moon shine whiskey in 3 counties so don’t think I’m picking on the hillbillies.  I are one and proud of it!

Wood gas?  Haven’t seen it even though these hills are full of free wood if you have a friend with a plot of land and you have an axe to go get it.

Algae?  Not around here folks.

So…what are we going to do when the gas runs out?   And what are we going to do when we can’t get the mechanical components from half way across the country or world to fix whatever mechanical vehicle we have managed to either buy or hobble together?   Maintenance folks…maintenance!   Just think what a headache it is now when we need a car part and someone to fix our car!

How about mules?  That’s right.  Mules.  Now just take a minute and think this through with me.

That is one thing we could do around here.  It could be affordable for most people.  It is certainly sustainable.

Mules can be ridden and can pull a buggy.  They can plow.

Why mules rather than horses?  Here are some reasons why I think I would rather have a mule.

Mules endure heat better than horses do.

Mules have fewer feeding problems than horses do.

Mules eat less than horses do.

Mules rarely have hoof problems.

Mules excel in physical soundness.

Mules live longer productive lives than horses do.

Mules can more easily than horses be handled in large groups.

Mules have a strong sense of self preservation.

Mules are surefooted and careful.

Mules incur fewer veterinary expenses.

So do I have mule yet?   No.  I don’t have a place to raise one either but I think I might need to get a little more active working on that.

Sustainable Potomac Highlands Meeting - Thursday, April 10

This month's meeting of Sustainable Potomac Highlands is tomorrow,Thursday, at 7pm at the Health Department in Augusta.  

Minutes of the last meeting are available here, on their website.

The proposed agenda is as follows:

Proposed Agenda

Sustainable Potomac Highlands

04/10/14

1. Call to order and welcome new people. Resilience News: Tom Lewis

2. Presentation: Solar and Wind Energy

Colin Williams, Mountain View Solar

3. Approve minutes of the last meeting and agenda for this meeting.

4. Treasurer’s Report: Steve Martin

 

5. Old Business/New Business

Steve Martin on USDA Strike Force

Dale Brady on Transitions

6. Reports from the standing committees as needed:

Food: Windy Cutler

Health: Eva Taylor

Energy: Tim Reese

Transportation: Sarah Purol

Finance: Steve Martin

Communications: Vince Lombardi

7. Adjourn for meetings of the standing committees.

Farm Broadcasters Scholarships

Since 1977, the National Association of Farm Broadcasters (NAFB) Foundation has awarded scholarships to students who are studying agriculture communications.  This year, the Foundation will award it’s 100^th scholarship as three $5000 scholarships—the Glenn Kummerow Memorial Scholarship, the George Logan Scholarship and the Orion Samuelson Scholarship—are presented to deserving college students.  

Applicants should be a college junior, senior or grad school student enrolled in agriculture communications.  Applications are due byJune 2 to be considered for this year’s judging; recipients will be informed by early September.  The scholarship application is available on the NAFB Foundation website.

Here’s how you can help:  if you know of any college students who would qualify for this scholarship program, please forward this note to them and direct any questions about the process to Barbara Young (Barbara@nafb.com) at the NAFB office.

Quick Guide to Buying Your First Home EV Charger

By Brad Berman · January 13, 2014

It may surprise EV newbies to learn that an electric car’s charger is found on board the vehicle. It’s the equipment buried in the guts of the car that takes an AC source of juice from your house, and converts it to DC—so your car’s battery pack can be charged.

That's a fact. But it doesn’t stop nearly everybody from calling the wall-mounted box that supplies 240 volts of electricity a “charger.” Actually, that box, cord and plug has a technical name—Electric Vehicle Service Equipment or EVSE—and if you have an EV, you’re going to want to install one at home.

So, it’s slightly misleading to say we’re providing guidance about chargers, because we’re really talking about buying an EVSE—which is essentially no more than an electrical device allowing drivers to safely connect an electric car to a 240-volt source of electricity. It’s not rocket science, and you should not overthink the selection and installation of an EVSE.

That said, there are important differences between the various home chargers (uh, I mean EVSEs). And there are a few best practices to keep in mind.