
Monday, July 21, 2014
Friday, June 13, 2014
A 20% to 25% Land Crash?
Reposted from DTN/Progressive Farmer:
Minding Ag's Business
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Thursday 06/05/14 |
| A 20% to 25% Land Crash? |
Marcia, in your June Businesslink column in "The Progressive Farmer" magazine, you quote a Farm Credit Administration economist saying, "We’re expecting a land value correction of 20% to 25%" over the next few years. What can make this happen? The price of the crop does not have the bearing as in the past. The price of land here has not stopped going up. --Cal
Cal, I can’t speak for the Farm Credit Administration’s rationale, but in general most economists say what buyers pay for land is based on future income prospects. In the long-run, that means land values mirror farm income and/or the potential rents landowners think they can charge. (Interest rates also affect affordability of land, but not as much as farm profits).
The problem is most of the “official” 10-year estimates of commodity prices from USDA and the University of Missouri’s FAPRI, for example, have corn averaging about $4 over the next decade, not the $6 to $7 cash corn growers averaged in 2012, so I think FCA is assuming future farm incomes won’t be as robust the next 5-10 years as they were in the last decade. There’s always a lag though, as in the 1980s when farm incomes fell first but the price of land didn’t bottom for five or six years.
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Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Next Sustainable Potomac Highland Meeting - May 8, 2014
To review the minutes of the last meeting go here.
Proposed Agenda
Sustainable Potomac Highlands
05/08/14
1. Call to order and welcome new people. Resilience News: Tom Lewis
2. Approve minutes of the last meeting and agenda for this meeting. Officers’ reports as needed; treasurer, Transition liaison, communications.
3. Old Business/New Business
Patricia Taylor: beekeeping presentation by Brian Umsted?
Sarah Purol: demonstration by biodiesel-car guy?
Windy Cutler: co-op with Brookedale Farms canning and preserving workshop?
Dale Brady: charcuterie workshop at HHS May 13?
Steve Martin: Frostburg Grows
Tom Lewis: liaison, West Virginia Highlands Climate Change Impacts Initiative. Conference June 7. Tom Rodd to speak to us in August?
5. Reports from the standing committees as needed:
Food: Windy Cutler
Health: Eva Taylor
Energy: Tim Reese
Transportation: Sarah Purol
Finance: Steve Martin
4. Presentation by Steven Martin: Topic is "Socially Responsible Investing." A brief introduction to getting your financial and investing philosophies in alignment with your local economy and sustainability values.
6. Adjourn.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Mules for Transportation here in Hampshire County by Sarah Purol
I have made reference to the fact
that in the quest for sustainable transportation animals would be a good option
to take a close look at. When we are
faced with a future where sustainability is a key factor it makes a great deal
of sense to remember that petroleum will be either very expensive or
unavailable and that has far reaching consequences.
We tend to forget how absolutely
dependent we are on petroleum products in our daily lives and the fact of the
matter is that we are going to have to live with a lot less of it…or perhaps
none at all.
What does that mean? It means there will be far less petroleum for
the following things:
Gas for cars. Diesel for cars. Home heating oil. Jet fuel. Asphalt for roads. Tires for vehicles. Plastics and composite
materials of various types. Fertilizer
for crops. Insecticides for crops. Certain types of medicine and cosmetics. Packaging for various items. The list is so long it would take the rest of
the page and…well…. you get the picture.
The main thing is of course
gasoline for our cars. When the crunch
hits…and that is coming very quickly…it will effect everything in a big way….and
we are not even remotely prepared for it.
We are so use to jumping in our own
personal cars to go wherever we want, whenever we want that we have
developed what I call a “transportation
entitlement” mentality.
Some of us will get electric vehicles
for personal transport and power them
from solar systems we have installed. I’ll
be watching carefully to see how well that pans out. Producing electricity with solar is a good
idea. So is producing electricity with
hydro systems and wind turbines. Using
electricity where you produce it is a good idea and I hope we can do that for a
long time into the future if we are smart and if we are lucky enough to be able
to manufacture and fix the components we need to keep the systems running.
But transportation using EV’s? Well..lets just say I’m not as confident
about that at present. For one thing,
cost is a big factor. For another thing,
the batteries are not so good at present…although that could change. I may yet jump on the EV bandwagon and put up
a solar array.
I’ve lived without electricity or
running water in a 3rd world country for two years as a Peace Corps
Volunteer so I’m not as worried about going without power as some folks
are. I suspect my husband will have to
have a solar array to be happy so I’ll probably leave that to him.
Some people are looking at alternative
fuels. You would think that with WV’s
history of moon shining and concurrent love of cars, there would be quite a
number of good old boys riding around in vehicles they had modified to run on
ethanol. Not so. BTW, I’m a good old girl myself and my
grandfather kept his 15 children alive for a period of time in southern WV
making the best moon shine whiskey in 3 counties so don’t think I’m picking on
the hillbillies. I are one and
proud of it!
Wood gas? Haven’t seen it even though these hills are
full of free wood if you have a friend with a plot of land and you have an axe
to go get it.
Algae? Not around here folks.
So…what are we going to do when the
gas runs out? And what are we going to
do when we can’t get the mechanical components from half way across the country
or world to fix whatever mechanical vehicle we have managed to either buy or
hobble together? Maintenance folks…maintenance! Just think what a headache it is now when we
need a car part and someone to fix our car!
How about mules? That’s right.
Mules. Now just take a minute and
think this through with me.
That is one thing we could
do around here. It could be affordable
for most people. It is certainly
sustainable.
Mules can be ridden and can pull a
buggy. They can plow.
Why mules rather than horses? Here are some reasons why I think I would
rather have a mule.
Mules endure heat better than horses do.
Mules have fewer feeding problems than horses do.
Mules eat less than horses do.
Mules rarely have hoof problems.
Mules excel in physical soundness.
Mules live longer productive lives than horses do.
Mules can more easily than horses be handled in large
groups.
Mules have a strong sense of self preservation.
Mules are surefooted and careful.
Mules incur fewer veterinary expenses.
So do I have mule yet? No. I
don’t have a place to raise one either but I think I might need to get a little
more active working on that.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
Sustainable Potomac Highlands Meeting - Thursday, April 10
This month's meeting of Sustainable Potomac Highlands is tomorrow,Thursday, at 7pm at the Health Department in Augusta.
Minutes of the last meeting are available here, on their website.
The proposed agenda is as follows:
Proposed Agenda
Sustainable Potomac Highlands
04/10/14
1. Call to order and welcome new people. Resilience News: Tom Lewis
2. Presentation: Solar and Wind Energy
Colin Williams, Mountain View Solar
3. Approve minutes of the last meeting and agenda for this meeting.
4. Treasurer’s Report: Steve Martin
5. Old Business/New Business
Steve Martin on USDA Strike Force
Dale Brady on Transitions
6. Reports from the standing committees as needed:
Food: Windy Cutler
Health: Eva Taylor
Energy: Tim Reese
Transportation: Sarah Purol
Finance: Steve Martin
Communications: Vince Lombardi
7. Adjourn for meetings of the standing committees.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
Farm Broadcasters Scholarships
Since 1977, the National Association of Farm Broadcasters (NAFB) Foundation has awarded scholarships to students who are studying agriculture communications. This year, the Foundation will award it’s 100th scholarship as three $5000 scholarships—the Glenn Kummerow Memorial Scholarship, the George Logan Scholarship and the Orion Samuelson Scholarship—are presented to deserving college students.
Applicants should be a college junior, senior or grad school student enrolled in agriculture communications. Applications are due byJune 2 to be considered for this year’s judging; recipients will be informed by early September. The scholarship application is available on the NAFB Foundation website.
Here’s how you can help: if you know of any college students who would qualify for this scholarship program, please forward this note to them and direct any questions about the process to Barbara Young (Barbara@nafb.com) at the NAFB office.
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